Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 24.069109 25.515858 27.052576 28.814776 30.790315 32.949417 35.505204
2025-12-21 22.006806 24.007518 26.246991 28.969951 32.234726 36.082617 41.055569
2025-12-28 20.864950 23.180345 25.861679 29.253535 33.518426 38.836572 46.207909
2026-01-04 19.558749 21.998046 24.889320 28.650001 33.544964 39.914545 49.248647
2026-01-11 19.014468 21.655613 24.862060 29.157004 34.961111 42.884633 55.284701
2026-01-18 18.444964 21.224300 24.666273 29.392997 35.993011 45.401954 61.075856
2026-01-25 17.656301 20.461708 23.984393 28.908080 35.947896 46.313286 64.441434
2026-02-01 16.940018 19.748936 23.317455 28.381000 35.771437 46.970556 67.456876
2026-02-08 16.056754 18.779953 22.261700 27.243367 34.598358 45.927284 67.201849
2026-02-15 15.884925 18.725165 22.413310 27.799346 35.983069 49.125632 75.583466
2026-02-22 15.634488 18.551283 22.388687 28.091684 36.977277 51.793633 83.656423
2026-03-01 15.052467 17.911547 21.694492 27.360020 36.286606 51.428316 85.023035
2026-03-08 14.245765 17.005294 20.679768 26.230606 35.088072 50.410837 85.681249
2026-03-15 13.876091 16.681916 20.471897 26.311184 35.906756 53.300399 97.188820
2026-03-22 13.597557 16.462488 20.388044 26.558410 37.012151 56.939561 112.886117
2026-03-29 13.119390 15.944652 19.846337 26.047678 36.736719 57.719214 120.678566
2026-04-05 12.946969 15.842903 19.898694 26.475937 38.179544 62.474058 146.069485
2026-04-12 12.724588 15.658906 19.816705 26.674835 39.218257 66.597063 174.608509
2026-04-19 12.358765 15.255724 19.386987 26.265860 39.043757 67.760441 191.304979
2026-04-26 12.006957 14.860445 18.952059 25.820347 38.751695 68.576107 207.868820
2026-05-03 11.543083 14.290481 18.232364 24.855271 37.343423 66.230122 202.447208
2026-05-10 11.462509 14.271787 18.350813 25.327518 38.886179 72.192033 266.972085
2026-05-17 11.331581 14.174045 18.341564 25.575369 39.996158 77.342850 350.831579